Comments on 'standard and reference-based conditional mean imputation': Regulators and trial statisticians be aware!

Accurate frequentist performance of a method is desirable in confirmatory clinical trials, but is not sufficient on its own to justify the use of a missing data method. Reference-based conditional mean imputation, with variance estimation justified solely by its frequentist performance, has the surprising and undesirable property that the estimated variance becomes smaller the greater the number of missing observations; as explained under jump-to-reference it effectively forces the true treatment effect to be exactly zero for patients with missing data.

Comment on Oberman & Vink: Should we fix or simulate the complete data in simulation studies evaluating missing data methods?

For simulation studies that evaluate methods of handling missing data, we argue that generating partially observed data by fixing the complete data and repeatedly simulating the missingness indicators is a superficially attractive idea but only rarely appropriate to use.

Randomised controlled trial of adjunctive triamcinolone acetonide in eyes undergoing vitreoretinal surgery following open globe trauma: The ASCOT study.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: To investigate the clinical effectiveness of adjunctive triamcinolone acetonide (TA) given at the time of vitreoretinal surgery following open globe trauma (OGT). METHODS: A phase 3, multicentre, double-masked randomised controlled trial of patients undergoing vitrectomy following OGT comparing adjunctive TA (intravitreal and subtenons) against standard care (2014-2020). The primary outcome was the proportion of patients with at least 10 Early Treatment Diabetic Retinopathy Study (ETDRS) letter improvement in corrected visual acuity (VA) at 6 months. Secondary outcomes included: change in ETDRS, retinal detachment (RD) secondary to PVR, retinal reattachment, macular reattachment, tractional RD, number of operations, hypotony, elevated intraocular pressure and quality of life. RESULTS: 280 patients were randomised over 75 months, of which 259 completed the study. 46.9% (n=61/130) of patients in the treatment group had a 10-letter improvement in VA compared with 43.4% (n=56/129) of the control group (difference 3.5% (95% CI -8.6% to 15.6%), OR=1.03 (95% CI 0.61 to 1.75), p=0.908)). Secondary outcome measures also failed to show any treatment benefit. For two of the secondary outcome measures, stable complete retinal and macular reattachment, outcomes were worse in the treatment group compared with controls, respectively, 51.6% (n=65/126) vs 64.2% (n=79/123), OR=0.59 (95% CI 0.36 to 0.99), and 54.0% (n=68/126) vs 66.7% (n=82/123), OR=0.59 (95% CI 0.35 to 0.98), for TA vs control. CONCLUSION: The use of combined intraocular and sub-Tenons capsule TA is not recommended as an adjunct to vitrectomy surgery following OGT. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT02873026.

A randomised controlled trial of adjunctive triamcinolone acetonide in eyes undergoing vitreoretinal surgery for open globe trauma - the ASCOT study.

Background: Eyes sustaining open globe trauma are at high risk of severe visual impairment. Proliferative vitreoretinopathy is the most common cause of retinal detachment and visual loss in eyes with open globe trauma. There is evidence from experimental studies and pilot clinical trials that the use of adjunctive steroid medication triamcinolone acetonide can reduce the incidence of proliferative vitreoretinopathy and improve outcomes of surgery for open globe trauma. Objective: The Adjunctive Steroid Combination in Ocular Trauma or ASCOT study aimed to investigate the clinical effectiveness of adjunctive triamcinolone acetonide given at the time of vitreoretinal surgery for open globe trauma. Design: A phase 3 multicentre double-masked randomised controlled trial randomising patients undergoing vitrectomy following open globe trauma to either adjunctive triamcinolone acetonide or standard care. Setting: Hospital vitreoretinal surgical services dealing with open globe trauma. Participants: Patients undergoing vitrectomy surgery who had sustained open globe trauma. Interventions: Triamcinolone acetonide 4 mg/0.1 ml into the vitreous cavity and 40 mg/1 ml sub-Tenon's or standard vitreoretinal surgery and postoperative care. Main outcome measures: The primary outcome was the proportion of patients with at least 10 letters of improvement in corrected visual acuity at six months. Secondary outcomes included retinal detachment secondary to proliferative vitreoretinopathy, retinal reattachment, macula reattachment, tractional retinal detachment, number of operations, hypotony, elevated intraocular pressure and quality of life. Health-related quality of life was assessed using the EuroQol Five Domain and Visual Function Questionnaire 25 questionnaires. Results: A total of 280 patients were randomised; 129 were analysed from the control group and 130 from the treatment group. The treatment group appeared, by chance, to have more severe pathology on presentation. The primary outcome (improvement in visual acuity) and principal secondary outcome (change in visual acuity) did not demonstrate any treatment benefit for triamcinolone acetonide. The proportion of patients with improvement in visual acuity was 47% for triamcinolone acetonide and 43% for standard care (odds ratio 1.03, 95% confidence interval 0.61 to 1.75, p = 0.908); the baseline adjusted mean difference in the six-month change in visual acuity was -2.65 (95% confidence interval -9.22 to 3.92, p = 0.430) for triamcinolone acetonide relative to control. Similarly, the secondary outcome measures failed to show any treatment benefit. For two of the secondary outcome measures, stable complete retinal reattachment and stable macular retinal reattachment, outcomes for the treatment group were significantly worse for triamcinolone acetonide at the 5% level (respectively, odds ratio 0.59, 95% confidence interval 0.36 to 0.99, p = 0.044 and odds ratio 0.59, 95% confidence interval 0.35 to 0.98, p = 0.041) compared with control in favour of control. The cost of the intervention was £132 per patient. Health economics outcome measures (Early Treatment Diabetic Retinopathy Study, Visual Function Questionnaire 25 and EuroQol Five Dimensions) did not demonstrate any significant difference in quality-adjusted life-years. Conclusions: The use of combined intraocular and sub-Tenon's capsule triamcinolone acetonide is not recommended as an adjunct to vitrectomy surgery for intraocular trauma. Secondary outcome measures are suggestive of a negative effect of the adjunct, although the treatment group appeared to have more severe pathology on presentation. Future work: The use of alternative adjunctive medications in cases undergoing surgery for open globe trauma should be investigated. Refinement of clinical grading and case selection will enable better trail design for future studies. Trial registration: This trial is registered as ISRCTN 30012492, EudraCT number 2014-002193-37, REC 14/LNO/1428, IRAS 156358, Local R&D registration CHAD 1031. Funding: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme (12/35/64) and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 27, No. 12. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Despite advances in surgical techniques, eye trauma remains a leading cause of blindness and visual impairment. The main cause of trauma is a scarring process within the eye ­ proliferative vitreoretinopathy. There is good evidence from laboratory work and small-scale clinical studies that the addition of a steroid medication, triamcinolone acetonide, given in and around the eye at the time of surgery for eye trauma, can reduce the incidence of proliferative vitreoretinopathy scarring and improve the outcomes of surgery. The Adjunctive Steroid Combination in Ocular Trauma or ASCOT study was a multicentre clinical trial designed to test the use of triamcinolone acetonide as an addition to surgery to improve outcomes in eyes with 'open globe' penetrating injuries. A total of 280 patients were recruited and randomised to receive standard surgery or surgery with the additional steroid (triamcinolone acetonide). No benefit was found from the addition of the steroid medication. The addition of steroid medication was not good value for money. Secondary outcome measures suggested that triamcinolone acetonide may have had a negative effect on outcomes, although this may have been due to the presence of more severe cases amongst the patients allocated to receive the additional steroid (triamcinolone acetonide). The use of adjunctive triamcinolone acetonide in eye trauma cases undergoing surgery is therefore not recommended. Future studies with different additional medications and/or more targeted case selection are indicated to improve outcomes for eyes experiencing penetrating trauma.

Starting a conversation about estimands with public partners involved in clinical trials: a co-developed tool.

BACKGROUND: Clinical trials aim to draw conclusions about the effects of treatments, but a trial can address many different potential questions. For example, does the treatment work well for patients who take it as prescribed? Or does it work regardless of whether patients take it exactly as prescribed? Since different questions can lead to different conclusions on treatment benefit, it is important to clearly understand what treatment effect a trial aims to investigate-this is called the 'estimand'. Using estimands helps to ensure trials are designed and analysed to answer the questions of interest to different stakeholders, including patients and public. However, there is uncertainty about whether patients and public would like to be involved in defining estimands and how to do so. Public partners are patients and/or members of the public who are part of, or advise, the research team. We aimed to (i) co-develop a tool with public partners that helps explain what an estimand is and (ii) explore public partner's perspectives on the importance of discussing estimands during trial design. METHODS: An online consultation meeting was held with 5 public partners of mixed age, gender and ethnicities, from various regions of the UK. Public partner opinions were collected and a practical tool describing estimands, drafted before the meeting by the research team, was developed. Afterwards, the tool was refined, and additional feedback sought via email. RESULTS: Public partners want to be involved in estimand discussions. They found an introductory tool, to be presented and described to them by a researcher, helpful for starting a discussion about estimands in a trial design context. They recommended storytelling, analogies and visual aids within the tool. Four topics related to public partners' involvement in defining estimands were identified: (i) the importance of addressing questions that are relevant to patients and public in trials, (ii) involving public partners early on, (iii) a need for education and communication for all stakeholders and (iv) public partners and researchers working together. CONCLUSIONS: We co-developed a tool for researchers and public partners to use to facilitate the involvement of public partners in estimand discussions.

Handling intercurrent events and missing data in non-inferiority trials using the estimand framework: A tuberculosis case study.

INTRODUCTION: The ICH E9 addendum outlining the estimand framework for clinical trials was published in 2019 but provides limited guidance around how to handle intercurrent events for non-inferiority studies. Once an estimand is defined, it is also unclear how to deal with missing values using principled analyses for non-inferiority studies. METHODS: Using a tuberculosis clinical trial as a case study, we propose a primary estimand, and an additional estimand suitable for non-inferiority studies. For estimation, multiple imputation methods that align with the estimands for both primary and sensitivity analysis are proposed. We demonstrate estimation methods using the twofold fully conditional specification multiple imputation algorithm and then extend and use reference-based multiple imputation for a binary outcome to target the relevant estimands, proposing sensitivity analyses under each. We compare the results from using these multiple imputation methods with those from the original study. RESULTS: Consistent with the ICH E9 addendum, estimands can be constructed for a non-inferiority trial which improves on the per-protocol/intention-to-treat-type analysis population previously advocated, involving respectively a hypothetical or treatment policy strategy to handle relevant intercurrent events. Results from using the 'twofold' multiple imputation approach to estimate the primary hypothetical estimand, and using reference-based methods for an additional treatment policy estimand, including sensitivity analyses to handle the missing data, were consistent with the original study's reported per-protocol and intention-to-treat analysis in failing to demonstrate non-inferiority. CONCLUSIONS: Using carefully constructed estimands and appropriate primary and sensitivity estimators, using all the information available, results in a more principled and statistically rigorous approach to analysis. Doing so provides an accurate interpretation of the estimand.

Barriers and facilitators to the recruitment of disabled people to clinical trials: a scoping review.

INTRODUCTION: Underrepresentation of disabled groups in clinical trials results in an inadequate evidence base for their clinical care, which drives health inequalities. This study aims to review and map the potential barriers and facilitators to the recruitment of disabled people in clinical trials to identify knowledge gaps and areas for further extensive research. The review addresses the question: 'What are the barriers and facilitators to recruitment of disabled people to clinical trials?'. METHODS: The Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) Scoping review guidelines were followed to complete the current scoping review. MEDLINE and EMBASE databases were searched via Ovid. The literature search was guided by a combination of four key concepts from the research question: (1) disabled populations, (2) patient recruitment, (3) barriers and facilitators, and (4) clinical trials. Papers discussing barriers and facilitators of all types were included. Papers that did not have at least one disabled group as their population were excluded. Data on study characteristics and identified barriers and facilitators were extracted. Identified barriers and facilitators were then synthesised according to common themes. RESULTS: The review included 56 eligible papers. The evidence on barriers and facilitators was largely sourced from Short Communications from Researcher Perspectives (N = 22) and Primary Quantitative Research (N = 17). Carer perspectives were rarely represented in articles. The most common disability types for the population of interest in the literature were neurological and psychiatric disabilities. A total of five emergent themes were determined across the barriers and facilitators. These were as follows: risk vs benefit assessment, design and management of recruitment protocol, balancing internal and external validity considerations, consent and ethics, and systemic factors. CONCLUSIONS: Both barriers and facilitators were often highly specific to disability type and context. Assumptions should be minimised, and study design should prioritise principles of co-design and be informed by a data-driven assessment of needs for the study population. Person-centred approaches to consent that empower disabled people to exercise their right to choose should be adopted in inclusive practice. Implementing these recommendations stands to improve inclusive practices in clinical trial research, serving to produce a well-rounded and comprehensive evidence base.

Eliminating Ambiguous Treatment Effects Using Estimands.

Most reported treatment effects in medical research studies are ambiguously defined, which can lead to misinterpretation of study results. This is because most authors do not attempt to describe what the treatment effect represents, and instead require readers to deduce this based on the reported statistical methods. However, this approach is challenging, because many methods provide counterintuitive results. For example, some methods include data from all patients, yet the resulting treatment effect applies only to a subset of patients, whereas other methods will exclude certain patients while results will apply to everyone. Additionally, some analyses provide estimates pertaining to hypothetical settings in which patients never die or discontinue treatment. Herein we introduce estimands as a solution to the aforementioned problem. An estimand is a clear description of what the treatment effect represents, thus saving readers the necessity of trying to infer this from study methods and potentially getting it wrong. We provide examples of how estimands can remove ambiguity from reported treatment effects and describe their current use in practice. The crux of our argument is that readers should not have to infer what investigators are estimating; they should be told explicitly.

Practical approaches to Bayesian sample size determination in non-inferiority trials with binary outcomes.

Bayesian analysis of a non-inferiority trial is advantageous in allowing direct probability statements to be made about the relative treatment difference rather than relying on an arbitrary and often poorly justified non-inferiority margin. When the primary analysis will be Bayesian, a Bayesian approach to sample size determination will often be appropriate for consistency with the analysis. We demonstrate three Bayesian approaches to choosing sample size for non-inferiority trials with binary outcomes and review their advantages and disadvantages. First, we present a predictive power approach for determining sample size using the probability that the trial will produce a convincing result in the final analysis. Next, we determine sample size by considering the expected posterior probability of non-inferiority in the trial. Finally, we demonstrate a precision-based approach. We apply these methods to a non-inferiority trial in antiretroviral therapy for treatment of HIV-infected children. A predictive power approach would be most accessible in practical settings, because it is analogous to the standard frequentist approach. Sample sizes are larger than with frequentist calculations unless an informative analysis prior is specified, because appropriate allowance is made for uncertainty in the assumed design parameters, ignored in frequentist calculations. An expected posterior probability approach will lead to a smaller sample size and is appropriate when the focus is on estimating posterior probability rather than on testing. A precision-based approach would be useful when sample size is restricted by limits on recruitment or costs, but it would be difficult to decide on sample size using this approach alone.

Presenting clinical characteristics of open globe injuries in ocular trauma: baseline analysis of cases in the ASCOT national clinical trial.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: The Adjunctive Steroid Combination in Ocular Trauma (ASCOT) trial is a unique pragmatic, multi-centre, patient and assessor masked, randomised controlled trial. We evaluate the clinical characteristics and pathology of this large trial cohort of patients with open globe injuries undergoing vitreoretinal surgery, including the associations between patient characteristics and their baseline vision. SUBJECTS/METHODS: We (i) summarise demographics, injury history and ocular history of the 280 participants recruited into the ASCOT trial using descriptive statistics; (ii) analyse the national and seasonal variation across England and Scotland in these participant characteristics; and (iii) explore the associations between participant demographic, trauma history, ocular history and presenting baseline visual acuity (measured using the Early Treatment Diabetic Retinopathy Study, ETDRS) using multivariable regression analyses. RESULTS: The majority of participants with open globe penetrating injuries were of white ethnicity (233, 84%), male (246, 88%), with a median age of 43 years (IQR 30-55 years). There was considerable variability in presenting visual acuity with 75% unable to read any letters on the ETDRS chart, whilst the median ETDRS letter score was 58 (IQR 24-80) for those who could read ≥1 letter. The most common causes of injury were workplace related (31%) or interpersonal violence (24%). Previous eye surgery, visual axis corneal scar, lens status, hyphaemia and vitreous haemorrhaging were found to be associated with presenting vision as measured by the ETDRS chart. CONCLUSION: The ASCOT trial provides valuable insights into the spectrum of pathology of patients with open globe eye injuries undergoing vitreoretinal surgery. The identified causes of injury and clinical presentation of the cases will help in training and resource planning to deal with these often challenging surgical cases. TRIAL REGISTRATION: EudraCT No. 014-002193-37. HTA Project 12/35/64.

Skin care interventions in infants for preventing eczema and food allergy.

BACKGROUND: Eczema and food allergy are common health conditions that usually begin in early childhood and often occur in the same people. They can be associated with an impaired skin barrier in early infancy. It is unclear whether trying to prevent or reverse an impaired skin barrier soon after birth is effective for preventing eczema or food allergy. OBJECTIVES: Primary objective To assess the effects of skin care interventions such as emollients for primary prevention of eczema and food allergy in infants. Secondary objective To identify features of study populations such as age, hereditary risk, and adherence to interventions that are associated with the greatest treatment benefit or harm for both eczema and food allergy. SEARCH METHODS: We performed an updated search of the Cochrane Skin Specialised Register, CENTRAL, MEDLINE, and Embase in September 2021. We searched two trials registers in July 2021. We checked the reference lists of included studies and relevant systematic reviews, and scanned conference proceedings to identify further references to relevant randomised controlled trials (RCTs).  SELECTION CRITERIA: We included RCTs of skin care interventions that could potentially enhance skin barrier function, reduce dryness, or reduce subclinical inflammation in healthy term (> 37 weeks) infants (≤ 12 months) without pre-existing eczema, food allergy, or other skin condition. Eligible comparisons were standard care in the locality or no treatment. Types of skin care interventions could include moisturisers/emollients; bathing products; advice regarding reducing soap exposure and bathing frequency; and use of water softeners. No minimum follow-up was required. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: This is a prospective individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis. We used standard Cochrane methodological procedures, and primary analyses used the IPD dataset. Primary outcomes were cumulative incidence of eczema and cumulative incidence of immunoglobulin (Ig)E-mediated food allergy by one to three years, both measured at the closest available time point to two years. Secondary outcomes included adverse events during the intervention period; eczema severity (clinician-assessed); parent report of eczema severity; time to onset of eczema; parent report of immediate food allergy; and allergic sensitisation to food or inhalant allergen. MAIN RESULTS: We identified 33 RCTs comprising 25,827 participants. Of these, 17 studies randomising 5823 participants reported information on one or more outcomes specified in this review.  We included 11 studies, randomising 5217 participants, in one or more meta-analyses (range 2 to 9 studies per individual meta-analysis), with 10 of these studies providing IPD; the remaining 6 studies were included in the narrative results only.   Most studies were conducted at children's hospitals. Twenty-five studies, including all those contributing data to meta-analyses, randomised newborns up to age three weeks to receive a skin care intervention or standard infant skin care. Eight of the 11 studies contributing to meta-analyses recruited infants at high risk of developing eczema or food allergy, although the definition of high risk varied between studies. Durations of intervention and follow-up ranged from 24 hours to three years. All interventions were compared against no skin care intervention or local standard care. Of the 17 studies that reported information on our prespecified outcomes, 13 assessed emollients. We assessed most of the evidence in the review as low certainty and had some concerns about risk of bias. A rating of some concerns was most often due to lack of blinding of outcome assessors or significant missing data, which could have impacted outcome measurement but was judged unlikely to have done so. We assessed the evidence for the primary food allergy outcome as high risk of bias due to the inclusion of only one trial, where findings varied based on different assumptions about missing data. Skin care interventions during infancy probably do not change the risk of eczema by one to three years of age (risk ratio (RR) 1.03, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.81 to 1.31; risk difference 5 more cases per 1000 infants, 95% CI 28 less to 47 more; moderate-certainty evidence; 3075 participants, 7 trials) or time to onset of eczema (hazard ratio 0.86, 95% CI 0.65 to 1.14; moderate-certainty evidence; 3349 participants, 9 trials). Skin care interventions during infancy may increase the risk of IgE-mediated food allergy by one to three years of age (RR 2.53, 95% CI 0.99 to 6.49; low-certainty evidence; 976 participants, 1 trial) but may not change risk of allergic sensitisation to a food allergen by age one to three years (RR 1.05, 95% CI 0.64 to 1.71; low-certainty evidence; 1794 participants, 3 trials). Skin care interventions during infancy may slightly increase risk of parent report of immediate reaction to a common food allergen at two years (RR 1.27, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.61; low-certainty evidence; 1171 participants, 1 trial); however, this was only seen for cow's milk, and may be unreliable due to over-reporting of milk allergy in infants. Skin care interventions during infancy probably increase risk of skin infection over the intervention period (RR 1.33, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.75; risk difference 17 more cases per 1000 infants, 95% CI one more to 38 more; moderate-certainty evidence; 2728 participants, 6 trials) and may increase the risk of infant slippage over the intervention period (RR 1.42, 95% CI 0.67 to 2.99; low-certainty evidence; 2538 participants, 4 trials) and stinging/allergic reactions to moisturisers (RR 2.24, 95% 0.67 to 7.43; low-certainty evidence; 343 participants, 4 trials), although CIs for slippages and stinging/allergic reactions were wide and include the possibility of no effect or reduced risk. Preplanned subgroup analyses showed that the effects of interventions were not influenced by age, duration of intervention, hereditary risk, filaggrin (FLG) mutation, chromosome 11 intergenic variant rs2212434, or classification of intervention type for risk of developing eczema. We could not evaluate these effects on risk of food allergy. Evidence was insufficient to show whether adherence to interventions influenced the relationship between skin care interventions and eczema or food allergy development. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Based on low- to moderate-certainty evidence, skin care interventions such as emollients during the first year of life in healthy infants are probably not effective for preventing eczema; may increase risk of food allergy; and probably increase risk of skin infection. Further study is needed to understand whether different approaches to infant skin care might prevent eczema or food allergy.

Access to unpublished protocols and statistical analysis plans of randomised trials.

BACKGROUND: Access to protocols and statistical analysis plans (SAPs) increases the transparency of randomised trial by allowing readers to identify and interpret unplanned changes to study methods, however they are often not made publicly available. We sought to determine how often study investigators would share unavailable documents upon request. METHODS: We used trials from two previously identified cohorts (cohort 1: 101 trials published in high impact factor journals between January and April of 2018; cohort 2: 100 trials published in June 2018 in journals indexed in PubMed) to determine whether study investigators would share unavailable protocols/SAPs upon request. We emailed corresponding authors of trials with no publicly available protocol or SAP up to four times. RESULTS: Overall, 96 of 201 trials (48%) across the two cohorts had no publicly available protocol or SAP (11/101 high-impact cohort, 85/100 PubMed cohort). In total, 8/96 authors (8%) shared some trial documentation (protocol only [n = 5]; protocol and SAP [n = 1]; excerpt from protocol [n = 1]; research ethics application form [n = 1]). We received protocols for 6/96 trials (6%), and a SAP for 1/96 trial (1%). Seventy-three authors (76%) did not respond, 7 authors responded (7%) but declined to share a protocol or SAP, and eight email addresses were invalid (8%). A total of 329 emails were sent (an average of 41 emails for every trial which sent documentation). After emailing authors, the total number of trials with an available protocol increased by only 3%, from 52% in to 55%. CONCLUSIONS: Most study investigators did not share their unpublished protocols or SAPs upon direct request. Alternative strategies are needed to increase transparency of randomised trials and ensure access to protocols and SAPs.

Evaluating how clear the questions being investigated in randomised trials are: systematic review of estimands.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate how often the precise research question being addressed about an intervention (the estimand) is stated or can be determined from reported methods, and to identify what types of questions are being investigated in phase 2-4 randomised trials. DESIGN: Systematic review of the clarity of research questions being investigated in randomised trials in 2020 in six leading general medical journals. DATA SOURCE: PubMed search in February 2021. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA FOR SELECTING STUDIES: Phase 2-4 randomised trials, with no restrictions on medical conditions or interventions. Cluster randomised, crossover, non-inferiority, and equivalence trials were excluded. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Number of trials that stated the precise primary question being addressed about an intervention (ie, the primary estimand), or for which the primary estimand could be determined unambiguously from the reported methods using statistical knowledge. Strategies used to handle post-randomisation events that affect the interpretation or existence of patient outcomes, such as intervention discontinuations or uses of additional drug treatments (known as intercurrent events), and the corresponding types of questions being investigated. RESULTS: 255 eligible randomised trials were identified. No trials clearly stated all the attributes of the estimand. In 117 (46%) of 255 trials, the primary estimand could be determined from the reported methods. Intercurrent events were reported in 242 (95%) of 255 trials; but the handling of these could only be determined in 125 (49%) of 255 trials. Most trials that provided this information considered the occurrence of intercurrent events as irrelevant in the calculation of the treatment effect and assessed the effect of the intervention regardless (96/125, 77%)-that is, they used a treatment policy strategy. Four (4%) of 99 trials with treatment non-adherence owing to adverse events estimated the treatment effect in a hypothetical setting (ie, the effect as if participants continued treatment despite adverse events), and 19 (79%) of 24 trials where some patients died estimated the treatment effect in a hypothetical setting (ie, the effect as if participants did not die). CONCLUSIONS: The precise research question being investigated in most trials is unclear, mainly because of a lack of clarity on the approach to handling intercurrent events. Clear reporting of estimands is necessary in trial reports so that all stakeholders, including clinicians, patients and policy makers, can make fully informed decisions about medical interventions. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42021238053.

Hypertension in stroke survivors and associations with national premature stroke mortality: data for 2·5 million participants from multinational screening campaigns.

BACKGROUND: Blood pressure control has a pivotal role in reducing the incidence and recurrence of stroke. May Measurement Month (MMM), which was initiated in 2017 by the International Society of Hypertension, is the largest global blood pressure screening campaign. We aim to compare MMM participants with and without a previous history of stroke and to investigate associations between national-level estimates of blood pressure management from MMM and premature stroke mortality. METHODS: In this annual, global, cross-sectional survey, more than 2·5 million volunteers (≥18 years) from 92 countries were screened in May, 2017, and May, 2018. Three seated blood pressure readings and demographic, lifestyle, and cardiovascular disease data were collected. Associations between risk factors and stroke history were analysed with mixed-effects logistic regression, and associations between national-level estimates of blood pressure management and premature stroke mortality based on Global Burden of Disease data were investigated with linear regression. FINDINGS: 2 222 399 (88·4%) of 2 515 365 participants had recorded data on a history of stroke, of whom 62 639 (2·8%) reported a previous stroke. Participants with a history of stroke had higher rates of hypertension (77·0% vs 32·9%, p<0·0001) and of treated (90·2% vs 57·0%, p<0·0001) and controlled (55·9% vs 32·4%, p<0·0001) hypertension than those without a history of stroke. A third of participants with a history of stroke had either untreated hypertension or treated but uncontrolled hypertension (blood pressure ≥140/90 mm Hg). Strong positive associations were found between national premature stroke mortality and mean systolic blood pressure (84·3 [95% CI 38·8 to 129·9] years of life lost [YLL] per 100 000 people per mm Hg increase) and the percentage of participants with raised blood pressure (49·1 [22·6 to 75·6] YLL per 100 000 people per 1% increase). Strong negative associations were found between national premature stroke mortality and the percentage of participants with hypertension on treatment (-21·0 [-33·0 to -8·9] YLL per 100 000 people per 1% increase) and with controlled blood pressure (-31·6 [-43·8 to -19·4] YLL per 100 000 people per 1% increase). INTERPRETATION: Blood pressure control remains suboptimal worldwide among people with a history of stroke. National estimates of blood pressure management reflect national premature stroke mortality sufficiently to prompt policy makers to promote blood pressure screening and management. FUNDING: International Society of Hypertension and Servier Pharmaceuticals.

Visualising harms in publications of randomised controlled trials: consensus and recommendations.

OBJECTIVE: To improve communication of harm in publications of randomised controlled trials via the development of recommendations for visually presenting harm outcomes. DESIGN: Consensus study. SETTING: 15 clinical trials units registered with the UK Clinical Research Collaboration, an academic population health department, Roche Products, and The BMJ. PARTICIPANTS: Experts in clinical trials: 20 academic statisticians, one industry statistician, one academic health economist, one data graphics designer, and two clinicians. MAIN OUTCOME: measures A methodological review of statistical methods identified visualisations along with those recommended by consensus group members. Consensus on visual recommendations was achieved (at least 60% of the available votes) over a series of three meetings with participants. The participants reviewed and critically appraised candidate visualisations against an agreed framework and voted on whether to endorse each visualisation. Scores marginally below this threshold (50-60%) were revisited for further discussions and votes retaken until consensus was reached. RESULTS: 28 visualisations were considered, of which 10 are recommended for researchers to consider in publications of main research findings. The choice of visualisations to present will depend on outcome type (eg, binary, count, time-to-event, or continuous), and the scenario (eg, summarising multiple emerging events or one event of interest). A decision tree is presented to assist trialists in deciding which visualisations to use. Examples are provided of each endorsed visualisation, along with an example interpretation, potential limitations, and signposting to code for implementation across a range of standard statistical software. Clinician feedback was incorporated into the explanatory information provided in the recommendations to aid understanding and interpretation. CONCLUSIONS: Visualisations provide a powerful tool to communicate harms in clinical trials, offering an alternative perspective to the traditional frequency tables. Increasing the use of visualisations for harm outcomes in clinical trial manuscripts and reports will provide clearer presentation of information and enable more informative interpretations. The limitations of each visualisation are discussed and examples of where their use would be inappropriate are given. Although the decision tree aids the choice of visualisation, the statistician and clinical trial team must ultimately decide the most appropriate visualisations for their data and objectives. Trialists should continue to examine crude numbers alongside visualisations to fully understand harm profiles.